With the Golden Globes reduced to a chaotic session of live-tweeting, let’s hope this year’s Screen Actors Guild Awards can finally bring a little clarity to Oscar season. Indeed, the SAG Awards, voted on by the Hollywood actors’ guild SAG-AFTRA, are considered by many to be the strongest precursor when it comes to predicting Oscar momentum in the acting races: In most years, at least four of the five SAG nominees in each acting category will also receive an Oscar nomination.
After the nominations were announced on Wednesday morning, many lauded performances got a shot in the arm, though some notable actors will now have to hope for Oscar to recognize what SAG has snubbed. Which are which? Here’s my breakdown of this year’s SAG movie categories, followed by the full list of nominations.
Supporting Actor
Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar”
Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jared Leto, “House of Gucci”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
So the group liked Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” enough to nominate its ensemble in the top category, but neither of the film’s notable actors, Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds, made the cut in the supporting category? Instead, SAG nominated a sensitive Ben Affleck for “The Tender Bar” and Bradley Cooper for his fun, small role in “Licorice Pizza.” Sure, why not!
We’ll see if those two repeat at the Oscar nominations, but I think the other three men in the category are safely locked in. I’m happy to include Troy Kotsur here, since he’s so good as the father in “CODA,” but this race may ultimately come down to the enigmatic Kodi Smit-McPhee in “The Power of the Dog” and Jared Leto’s big, blustery transformation in “House of Gucci.”
Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast”
Cate Blanchett, “Nightmare Alley”
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
Ruth Negga, “Passing”
DeBose and Dunst have been stalwart nominees in this category all season, and Negga’s inclusion is a relief, since “Passing” hasn’t mustered much awards heat outside of her performance. I never would have expected Balfe to be the lone nominee from “Belfast” because awards voters love the film so much, but that may increase her odds of winning if SAG voters wish to single the movie out.
And then there’s Blanchett, who edged out other supporting actress hopefully like Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”), Ann Dowd (“Mass”), Rita Moreno (“West Side Story”) and Meryl Streep (“Don’t Look Up”). She’s terrific as a slinky femme fatale in “Nightmare Alley,” but it’s still a surprise to see her here since the movie hasn’t really caught on. Can Moreno or Ellis leapfrog past her at the Oscars?
Actor
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!”
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith and Washington are all widely expected to repeat at the Oscars, setting up a real clash of the titans for the win. But it’s a big shocker to see Javier Bardem here for his spirited performance as Desi Arnaz in “Being the Ricardos”: SAG voters clearly responded to this behind-the-scenes story of TV actors working on an iconic show.
Learn More About ‘Don’t Look Up’
In Netflix’s doomsday flick, Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence are two astronomers who discover a comet headed straight for Earth.
- Review: It’s the end of the world, and you should not feel fine, writes the film critic Manohla Dargis.
- A Metaphor for Climate Change: With his apocalyptic satire, the director Adam McKay hopes to prompt the audience to action.
- Meryl Streep’s Presidential Turn: How the actor prepared to play a self-centered scoundrel at the helm of the United States.
- A Real-Life ‘Don’t Look Up’ Moment: The film revives memories of a nail-biting night in the Times newsroom two decades ago.
Bardem beat out some pretty heavy-hitting competition in this category, including Peter Dinklage for “Cyrano” and Leonardo DiCaprio for “Don’t Look Up.” Since DiCaprio’s movie is still amassing momentum — Netflix says it’s the second-most-watched movie ever on the streamer — the fifth slot in this Oscar race remains up for grabs.
Actress
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”
Jennifer Hudson, “Respect”
Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
Awards voters are sucker for a convincing transformation into a real person, and this category offers it in spades: Chastain, Gaga, Hudson and Kidman all played real-life figures and the work they put into those roles is evident. You would have thought, then, that Kristen Stewart’s acclaimed turn as Princess Diana in “Spencer” would be right up SAG’s alley, but voters proved surprisingly resistant to crowning her.
If Stewart couldn’t even get nominated by SAG, her Oscar chances are looking very shaky. I wonder, then, if an Oscar battle is brewing between two women looking for their second Academy Award: Kidman, who transforms into Lucille Ball in “Being the Ricardos,” and Colman, both prickly and sympathetic as a troubled mother in “The Lost Daughter.”
Cast
“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“House of Gucci”
“King Richard”
Though this is considered SAG’s top category, it has less of a correlation with the best-picture race: Last year’s Oscar winner, “Nomadland,” wasn’t even nominated for the outstanding-cast SAG Award, because the guild prefers to honor a big ensemble instead of a film dominated by only one or two performances.
That’s why “Don’t Look Up,” which employs virtually everyone in SAG, can make the cut even though none of its individual actors were recognized, while “The Power of the Dog,” which scored nods for Cumberbatch, Dunst and Smit-McPhee, proved too intimate for a top nomination. Or maybe SAG just really wanted to recognize some crowd-pleasers, which is why “Belfast,” “CODA” and “King Richard” all made the cut.
As for “House of Gucci,” the reviews may be too mixed to power the film to a best-picture nomination at the Oscars, but SAG had no such qualms: Say what you will about Gaga, Leto, and all the rest, but no movie this year featured more acting.
Here’s the complete list:
Outstanding Cast
“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“House of Gucci”
“King Richard”
Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!”
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”
Jennifer Hudson, “Respect”
Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
Actor in a Supporting Role
Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar”
Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jared Leto, “House of Gucci”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
Actress in a Supporting Role
Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast”
Cate Blanchett, “Nightmare Alley”
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
Ruth Negga, “Passing”
Stunt Ensemble in a Movie
“Black Widow”
“Dune”
“The Matrix Resurrections”
“No Time to Die”
“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”
Ensemble in a Drama Series
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“The Morning Show”
“Squid Game”
“Succession”
“Yellowstone”
Actor in a Drama Series
Brian Cox, “Succession”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game”
Jeremy Strong, “Succession”
Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
HoYeon Jung, “Squid Game”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”
Ensemble in a Comedy Series
“The Great”
“Hacks”
“The Kominsky Method”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Ted Lasso”
Actor in a Comedy Series
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Actress in a Comedy Series
Elle Fanning, “The Great”
Sandra Oh, “The Chair”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”
Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus”
Oscar Isaac, “Scenes From a Marriage”
Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”
Ewan McGregor, “Halston”
Evan Peters, “Mare of Easttown”
Actress in a TV movie or limited series
Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
Cynthia Erivo, “Genius: Aretha”
Margaret Qualley, “Maid”
Jean Smart, “Mare of Easttown”
Kate Winslet, “Mare of Easttown”
Stunt Ensemble in a TV Series
“Cobra Kai”
“The Falcon and the Winter Soldier”
“Loki”
“Mare of Easttown”
“Squid Game”
